上周的英镑汇率上涨本周将面临考验，因为市场对于新退欧协议能否在议会得到多数议员的支持无从得知。
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Investors are braced for wild rides in sterling, which is expected to remain volatile ahead of a crucial period in Westminster that will determine whether the UK leaves the EU with or without a deal this month or if Brexit is pushed back to January.
投资者准备迎接英镑的剧烈波动，在英国议会决定英国本月有/无协议都退出欧盟(EU)、还是将退欧延至明年1月的关键时刻之前，英镑汇率预计仍将波动。
The pound finished last week on a positive note, trading as high as $1.30 against the dollar, rallying sharply after EU and UK leaders reached a new Brexit deal, ahead of Saturday’s House of Commons vote.
上周结束时，英镑对美元汇率上涨至1英镑兑1.30美元。在上周六下议院投票之前，欧盟与英国领导人达成了一项新的退欧协议，英镑汇率随之大幅上涨。
But that optimism is set to be tested this week after the UK parliament delayed the key vote, leaving investors “none the wiser” about the outcome. The key questions for currency traders are whether Boris Johnson has a majority to get his deal approved this week and if the EU will extend the October 31 Brexit deadline.
但这种乐观情绪本周将经受考验，此前，英国议会推迟了关键投票，这让投资者对投票结果“无从得知”。外汇交易员面临的关键问题是，鲍里斯?约翰逊(Boris Johnson)的退欧协议本周是否会获得多数议员的支持，以及欧盟会否延长10月31日英国退欧的最后期限。
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David Page, Senior Economist at AXA Investment Managers, said MPs had dashed investors’ hopes that this weekend would bring a resolution.
安盛投资管理公司(AXA Investment Managers)的资深经济学家戴维?佩奇(David Page)表示，议员们粉碎了投资者对周末达成一项解决方案的希望。
“There is no clarity as to whether parliament will support a new deal, nor whether the EU will grant an extension?.?.?.?or for how long,” he said.
“目前既不清楚英国议会是否会支持一项新协议，也不清楚欧盟是否会批准英国延迟退欧、或延迟多久。”他说。
Paul Dales, chief UK economist at research company Capital Economics, said the market had been left “none the wiser whether there is a majority in parliament for the latest Brexit deal.”
研究机构凯投宏观(Capital Economics)首席英国经济学家保罗?代尔斯(Paul Dales)表示，市场“对于新版退欧协议能否在议会得到多数议员的支持无从得知。”
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In a note on Sunday, Barclays analysts warned: “The Brexit calculus remains extremely complex, and investors should brace themselves for sterling volatility in the coming days.”
巴克莱(Barclays)的分析师在周日的一份报告中警告：“英国退欧的格局仍然极其复杂，投资者应该为未来几天英镑的波动做好准备。”
After rallying sharply on Thursday, trading at its strongest for five months, sterling slipped slightly ahead of the Saturday sitting amid doubts the UK government would get the support needed for the deal. Over the weekend an analysis of the vote suggests that Mr Johnson could have a majority of five.
上周四英镑大幅反弹，创下5个月来最大涨幅，上周六前稍有下滑，因为人们怀疑英国政府将获得通过协议所需的支持。周末对投票的分析似乎表明，约翰逊可能获得5票的票数优势。
Currency traders have not yet had chance to react to Saturday’s vote and are waiting for the markets to open in New Zealand late Sunday UK time. Several large banks have called in extra staff to help navigate trading over concerns that the lack of liquidity could exacerbate price swings.
外汇交易员尚无机会对周六的投票做出反应，正在等待英国时间周日晚新西兰市场开盘。几家大型银行已叫来额外员工协助交易，因为人们担忧流动性不足可能加剧价格波动。
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At the end of last week, traders signalled uncertainty about the pound’s future exchange rate as implied volatility — the measure of expectations about large price swings — spiked to its highest since 2016.
上周结束时，交易员发出信号表示，他们对于英镑的未来汇率水平不确定；隐含波动率——价格大幅波动预期的衡量标准——飙升至2016年以来的最高水平。
Sterling’s rally in recent weeks could also stall as investors take profit and “as the market expects further time wasting”, said Jordan Rochester, Nomura currency analyst.
野村证券(Nomura)外汇分析师乔丹?罗切斯特(Jordan Rochester)表示，近几周英镑的涨势也可能随着投资者斩获利润以及“市场预计进一步浪费时间”而停滞。
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Oliver Harvey, head of UK macro and Brexit research at Deutsche Bank, argued the pound’s prospects would remain positive at the start of the week as voting on the deal could happen as soon as Tuesday. However, he added: “It’s probably not wise to completely rule anything out.”
德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)英国宏观与退欧研究主管奥利弗?哈维(Oliver Harvey)认为，本周初英镑仍将看涨，因为针对退欧协议的投票有望最早在周二举行。然而，他补充道：“完全排除任何事情很可能是不明智的。”
Mr Harvey said investors could take “a bit more comfort from the chances of a no-deal on October 31 having diminished further”.
哈维表示，“10月31日无协议退欧的可能性已进一步减少，投资者可能从中得到更多安慰。”
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