距离10月议息会议仅剩不到两周的时间，美联储按照惯例进入静默期。在近期的密集表态中，虽然各方看法不一，但为了防范经济进一步下行风险，联邦公开市场委员会年内第三次降息逐渐成为市场的一致预期。
全文共652个单词
文章来源：Bloomberg BusinessWeek 彭博商业周刊
This won’t be a run-of-the-mill（普通的） recession—if in fact the U.S. ends up tumbling into one. Traditionally, U.S. downturns are homegrown and household-led, usually triggered by a spike in inflation and interest rates and fueled by an unwinding of financial and economic excesses. None of that is arguably（按理） at work this time. Instead, what’s at play is a global geopolitical shock to business sentiment that’s prompting U.S. companies to curb spending amid uncertainties including the U.S.-China trade war and Britain’s messy divorce from the European Union.
如果事实上美国最终陷入衰退，这将不是一场普通的衰退。传统上，美国经济衰退是由本国和家庭主导的，通常由通胀和利率的飙升引发，并由金融和经济过度行为的缓和推动。目前，还没看到这些迹象。相反，在中美贸易战、英国脱欧等不确定因素下，全球地缘政治对商业情绪的冲击正促使美国企业抑制支出。
That poses problems for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his fellow policymakers as they weigh whether to cut interest rates later this month for the third time this year. Geopolitical and emanate from abroad—makes it more difficult to decide how far to go in easing credit. There’s also the question of how effective rate cuts are at treating what is, at its root, a confidence problem: Businesses are loath（不情愿） to invest because they fear supply chains are unraveling（瓦解）.
这给美联储主席杰罗姆?鲍威尔和其他决策者带来了问题，他们正在考虑是否在本月晚些时候降息，这是今年第三次降息。来自国外地缘政治不稳定性使得决定放松信贷的程度更加困难。还有一个问题是，降息将如何有效地解决一个根本的信心问题：企业不愿意投资，因为他们担心供应链正在瓦解。

If businesses become more optimistic, there’s a chance the economy could snap back（反弹） as companies restart spending plans they put on hold and monetary stimulus kicks in with greater force. A study by IHS Markit’s Macroeconomic Advisers calculated that gross domestic product could be boosted by about 0.5% if uncertainty over trade policy ultimately dissipates. That doesn’t look likely. Bloomberg Economics’ model puts the odds of a recession in the next 12 months at about 25%. “The chances of a recession are higher than they were at the start of the year.
如果企业变得更加乐观，那么随着企业重新启动他们搁置的支出计划，货币刺激计划以更大力度启动，经济有可能反弹。IHS Markit宏观经济顾问的一项研究计算，如果贸易政策的不确定性最终消失，GDP可能会增长约0.5%。但这看起来不太可能。彭博经济的模型认为，未来12个月经济衰退的可能性约为25%。“经济衰退的可能性比年初要高。
Moody’s Analytics Inc. chief economist Mark Zandi reckons（认为） a recession is all but inevitable if President Trump follows through on his threat to impose tariffs on virtually all U.S. imports from China by the end of the year. Such a move would probably rock financial markets and hurt the economy, says Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist for Deutsche Bank Securities. If that happens, he says, the odds of a recession would rise to 50-50. Some other analysts are not as pessimistic. Former International Monetary Fund chief economist Maury Obstfeld believes a ratcheting up of tariffs on China would probably lead to slower growth, but not a recession.
穆迪分析公司首席经济学家马克·赞迪认为，如果特朗普总统继续威胁对几乎所有美国从中国进口的商品征收关税，衰退几乎是不可避免的。德意志银行证券首席美国经济学家马修?卢泽蒂表示，到年底此举可能会动摇金融市场，损害经济。他说，如果出现这种情况，经济衰退的可能性将上升到50-50。其他一些分析师并没有那么悲观。前国际货币基金组织首席经济学家奥布特菲尔德认为，对中国提高关税可能会导致经济增长放缓，但不会导致经济衰退。

That’s because many of the traditional drivers of downturns seem to be absent. Inflation isn’t high and rising. If anything, it’s too low, at least as far as the Fed is concerned. And the central bank isn’t raising interest rates. It’s lowering them. Stock prices are elevated, but they are arguably not in bubble territory given the low level of interest rates. “You have a lot of trouble identifying what the trigger would be for a recession in the U.S., especially a deep one,” says Andrew Hollenhorst, chief U.S. economist for Citigroup Inc. “That makes us feel a little less concerned.” He puts the chances of a recession over the next 12 months at about 30%.
这是因为许多传统的经济衰退的驱动因素似乎没有出现。通货膨胀率不高，而且没有在上升。如果有什么的话，那就是通货膨胀率就美联储而言太低了。而且美联储也没有加息，它在降息。股票价格上涨，但考虑到低利率水平，它们可能不在泡沫区域。花旗集团首席美国经济学家安德鲁霍伦霍斯特表示：“你很难确定美国经济衰退的导火索，尤其是深层次的衰退，”这让我们感到不那么担心。“他认为未来12个月经济衰退的可能性约为30%。
For veteran（经验丰富的） forecaster Allen Sinai, the situation is reminiscent of （令人回忆起）the lead-up to the 1990-91 recession. Then, companies responded to a profit squeeze from rising wages by cutting back spending and hiring. This time, slowing sales abroad could prompt U.S. companies to pull back, says Sinai, president of Decision Economics Inc. He says the lesson from the earlier period is that the Fed needs to respond aggressively and preemptively to the dangers of a recession. The trouble is that the outlook is far from clear. Some risks, such as Brexit, have yet to materialize. Others, like the U.S.-China tit-for-tat tariffs, have soured business sentiment but only recently begun to crimp（妨碍...的发展） output at U.S. factories. JPMorgan’s Kasman reckons that the odds of a recession over the next 12 months are 35% to 40%.
对于资深预测师艾伦·西奈来说，这种情况让人想起1990-1991年经济衰退的导火索。随后，企业通过削减开支和招聘来应对工资上涨带来的利润紧缩。决策经济公司总裁西奈表示，这一次，海外销售放缓可能会促使美国企业撤资。他说，前期的经验教训是，美联储需要积极应对衰退的危险，并先发制人。问题是前景远非明朗。一些风险，如退欧，还没有实现。其他的风险，如美中针锋相对的关税，已经使商业情绪恶化，但直到最近才开始抑制美国工厂的产量。摩根大通的卡斯曼表示，他估计，未来12个月出现衰退的几率为35%至40%。

每日词汇
loath   [l??θ]
[ IELTS/ GRE 词汇 ]
adj. 不乐意的；不情愿的；勉强的
She is loath to give up her hard-earned liberty.
unravel  [?n?r?vl]
[ TOEFL/ GRE 词汇 ]
① vi. 崩溃；失败
His government began to unravel because of a banking scandal.
② vt. 解开；拆散；（使）松开 
He was good with his hands and could unravel a knot or untangle yarn that others wouldn't even attempt.
③ vt. 揭开；揭示
A young mother has flown to Iceland to unravel the mystery of her husband's disappearance.
reckon  [?rek?n]
[ 考研/ IELTS/ TOEFL 词汇 ]
① vi. 想；认为
 It's worth a lot of money, I reckon.
② vi. 被普遍认为是；被看作是 
Children are reckoned to be more sophisticated nowadays.
③ vi. 料想；预计；指望 
We reckon to finish by ten.
④ vi. 估算；估计；计算
The age of the earth is reckoned at about 4 600 million years.
相关链接
美国经济放缓压力愈加明显
美联储主席鲍威尔本月在公开场合多次表示，政策没有预设路径，未来将依赖数据评估前景和风险，而最新的经济数据正预示着美国经济面临全面放缓的压力。作为美联储最关注的两大指标，就业和通胀的扩张势头均遭遇考验。虽然失业率已经降至50年低点，但三个月新增非农就业人数均值已经回落至2012年以来新低，制造业、零售业和服务业就业岗位持续面临萎缩压力。通胀则增长乏力，美国8月核心PCE增长1.8%，距美联储2%的目标尚有距离。美国经济支柱消费也出现了动摇迹象。美国9月零售销售月率回落0.3%，为近七个月来首次下滑。由于消费占到美国经济近七成，这也让三季度美国GDP表现蒙上阴影，目前华尔街机构的预期区间已经下修至1.2~1.9%。

尽管美国经济明显放缓，9月零售销售数据不应被过度解读，这与近期薪资增速放缓有一定关系，同时货币政策的有效性值得观察，美联储降息并不足以从根本上解决经济动能减弱的情况，化解贸易形势的不利影响相对更为重要。以上经济指标是研判美国经济形势的重要因素，但是仅仅经济指标是有局限性的。经济指标主要涉及指标本身所覆盖的经济活动，较难涵盖其他领域。因此，完全通过某个或某几个经济指标来判断美国经济，就出现代表性不够的情况。投资利益也会影响投资者对美国市场的研判。总体而言，研判美国经济，从其经济的基本结构出发，还是要紧紧抓住对美国消费状况的分析。如果消费有韧性，美国经济大概率不会有严重问题。如果消费持续不足，美国经济就可能会出现衰退。进一步的问题在于，影响美国国内消费的因素既和收入相关，也和信心相关，而后者很难被即时且准确地衡量。
注：本文所选词汇均为柯林斯高阶词典中的常用10000词或30000词。
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