本文转载自Vivi的《财新》专栏
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10月19日，国务院副总理刘鹤在出席2019年世界VR产业大会时指出，中美新一轮经贸高级别磋商在诸多领域取得实质性进展，为签署阶段性协议奠定了重要基础。但中美贸易战爆发以来，美方态度始终摇摆不定，甚至“朝令夕改”，这无疑让大家对中美贸易的发展前景抱有疑虑。自2018年3月特朗普准备对中国加征关税到2018年7月6日双方正式加征关税，此后中美贸易摩擦不断。一开始很多人对此持乐观态度，认为中美经济层面已是水乳交融，难舍难分，但随着美方频频增加关税，中方进行反制措施，贸易摩擦不断升级，大家也开始有了担忧疑虑。

作者为薇传媒集团创始人，资深国际电视记者，创新节目《Vivi闯硅谷》制作人，创新顾问，旅居硅谷
【财新】（专栏作家 林薇）如果真的发生这些领域的脱钩，对双方来说都是一个痛苦而漫长的旅程。因此，许多企业领导人和科技从业者在表达自己的担忧同时，开始为最坏的情况做好准备
对于中美关系，当时许多人仍持乐观态度，认为中兴仅仅是个案，中美关系依赖性如此深刻，不至于会走到离婚的地步。但在美国继续禁止中国企业进入其市场和技术之后，这种情绪便已悄悄转向悲观。
如果将中国和美国比作一对夫妇，经过数月的争吵，互加关税，禁止市场进入和无效的调解等等闹剧，人们不能不对中美可能脱钩和世界分歧产生越来越多的担忧。
If China and the U.S. were a couple, monthsof spats, tariffs, market entry bans and fruitless mediations have arousedincreasing worries about decoupling and a divergent world.
令人担忧的脱钩迹象
在人与人的关系中，当夫妻双方的争斗开始围绕金钱和孩子的监护权问题展开时，我们知道这段关系正在朝着不祥的方向发展。
在我居住的硅谷，科技领域不幸成为中美贸易战完美风暴的中心，对于两国关系的忧虑逐渐显现。
In Silicon Valley, where I am based, this ominous feeling started to pick up as the technology sector has unfortunately become the center of a perfect storm.
当特朗普政府在近一年半前，宣布禁止向中国第二大电信设备制造商中兴销售美国制造零部件，让中兴“断芯”，对于许多中国的政策制定者和科技界业内人士而言，这就像敲响了警钟。中国科技界对中国在科技领域对美国的重度依赖表示强烈担忧，尤其在芯片领域。
When the Trump administration started the ban on sales of U.S.-made parts to China’s second-largest telecom-equipment maker ZTE Corp. nearly a year and half ago, it came as a shock and wake-up call for many policymakers and industry players in the Chinese tech and science space, who expressed strong concerns about China’s heavy dependence on the U.S. in the tech sector, such as in microchips.

而对于中美关系，当时许多人仍持乐观态度，认为中兴仅仅是个案，中美关系依赖性如此深刻，不至于会走到离婚的地步。但在美国继续禁止中国企业进入其市场和技术之后，这种情绪便已悄悄转向悲观。最引人注目的举措是美国将中国电信巨头华为（5G领域的先驱）列入“实体名单”。
At that point, many still held the optimistic view that it was merely an isolated case — that China-U.S. ties were too intertwined and co-dependent to decouple. But the sentiment has subtly turned south after U.S. continued to ban Chinese companies from accessing its market and technology. The most high profile move was the blacklisting of Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd., a pioneer in the field of 5G, by putting the Chinese telecom giant on its “Entity List.”
该名单是名副其实的黑名单，在美国政府内部被称为“死刑”——上了名单，意味着不仅美国政府机构被禁止与任何使用华为设备的运营商做生意;美国公司还需要寻求美国政府的批准才能向华为出售产品。到目前为止，已有超过130家公司被禁止向华为出售商品，其中许多是芯片制造商和软件公司。例如，谷歌的Android安卓操作系统向华为关闭了大门，导致华为的全球智能手机业务遭遇困境。
该案件不可避免地扰乱了华为的供应链和全球业务，但另一方面也损害了美国的利益，导致美国公司的销售损失可能高达数十亿美元，其中许多公司都在硅谷。中国也通过提出自己的“不可靠实体名单”进行报复，称已退出中国的外国公司不会再被允许回国。
 The case has inevitably disrupted Huawei’s supply chain and global business, but it also hurt the U.S, causing possibly billions of dollars in lost sales for U.S. companies, many of which are based in Silicon Valley. China also retaliated by coming up with its own “unreliable entities list,” saying foreign companies that have withdrawn from China will not be allowed back.
在这些纷扰中，我留意到在硅谷创投届的话题里开始提到了令人担忧的中美脱钩。美国政府限制中国的举措似乎没有消停过，包括禁止联邦机构购买中国制造的无人机大疆，理由是存在国家安全隐患; 并强迫同性恋约会应用程序Grindr出售其来自中国的投资，原因是中国政府可能会因此获得这个应用程序里2700万（或更多）用户数据，并可能利用其中的敏感信息，如私人消息、自拍照，甚至用户的艾滋病毒状况等，敲诈拥有美国秘密情报的用户。
That’s when I notice the worrying talks over decoupling picking up in the valley. Adding to the jitters are a series of more aggressive moves by Washington, such as barring federal agencies from buying Chinese-made drones, citing security risks; and forcing the gay dating app Grindr to clear its Chinese investment on worries that the Chinese government might get hold of the app’s data on 27 million (or maybe more) users, and could use sensitive information, such as private messages, selfies and even HIV status, to blackmail users with security clearances.
种种迹象越来越接近一桩丑陋离婚的边缘，当夫妇中的一方或双方开始偏执和出现假想狂，开始做出伤害对方，但是终究损害自己的举动。
It almost feels like the couple is on the brink of an ugly divorce as paranoia gets the better of them, and they are doing things just to hurt the other party regardless of the result, while also hurting themselves.

“对于所有参与者来说，这只会是一个双输的局面，”Westly Group的执行合伙人史蒂夫韦斯特利在硅谷举行的中美创投届最大峰会“硅谷高创会”上，针对中美贸易战表示。韦斯特利先生曾经是特斯拉的董事，专注清洁能源投资。
“It’s simply a lose-lose situation for all involved,” Steve Westly, managing partner of The Westly Group, said on the sideline of the Silicon Valley Innovation and Entrepreneurship Forum, in reference to the U.S.-China trade war. Westly is focused on investing in sustainable energy and had served on the board of Tesla Inc.
中美脱钩，真的吗？
在过去，如果你和中美两国活跃的技术和投资领域参与者提到中美脱钩的问题，他们大都会耸耸肩，不置可否地一笑而过；而现在，他们开始重视这个问题，并持谨慎态度。
Many active cross-border players in the tech and investment space, who used to shrug off the question of decoupling, now find themselves looking at it with a cautious light.
“这可能意味着会有两个互联网，两套技术和标准以及可能的两种管理技术的意识形态，”国际跨境律所金杜的硅谷办公室管理合伙人李大诚告诉我，他是风险投资和私募股权领域最活跃的跨境法律顾问之一。
“It might mean there will be two internets; two sets of technologies and standards and possibly two ideologies governing the technology,” Rocky Lee, international partner at King & Wood Mallesons, one of the most active cross-border legal advisors for venture capital and private equity firms, told me.
李先生的交易包括中国科技界的最大交易之一，例如滴滴出行和OFO单车的融资，小米数十亿美元的融资以及平安收购TutorABC的交易。他预计世界科技行业的景观可能会发生深远变化。
Lee, who has worked on some of the largest tech deals in China, expected a possible change in the landscape in the world’s tech sector. 
“我看到中国会投资于传统上由美国主导的科技行业，或许这是必要的，”他说，中国可能会制造自己的先进半导体，世界可能有两个5G基础设施和两个5G标准，一个由中国建立，另一个由西方电信公司建造。”
“I see China actively investing in what are traditionally U.S. dominated tech sectors and perhaps this is out of necessity because U.S. companies are no longer able to sell to China,” he said, adding that China might make its own advanced semiconductors, and the world might one day have two types of 5G infrastructure and two 5G standards, one built by China and the other by western telecom companies.
李先生告诉我，“世界将分裂，而变化可能是永久性的”。
 “The world could be divided, and the change might be permanent,” Lee told me.
硅谷相当数量具有中国背景的著名风险投资家都认同他的观点，而问题的关键在于时机。
His view is shared by several prominent venture investors with Chinese backgrounds in Silicon Valley, but the key lies in the timing.
“考虑到中美之间目前的地缘政治局势，不可避免地要建立两个技术体系，但是需要很长时间才能实现，可能需要10到20年，”华山资本联合创始人兼管理合伙人杨镭告诉我。杨先生是中美科技领域最活跃的风险资本家之一，管理着超过6亿美元的资金，以其在中美科技领域精准的投资出名，他的投资包括由亚马逊收购的游戏平台Twitch，被英特尔收购的芯片制造商Movidius以及播客平台喜马拉雅。
“Given the current geopolitical situation between China-U.S., it is inevitable that two technological systems will be created. However, it will take long time to be there, it may take 10 to 20 years,” said Raymond Yang, co-founder and managing partner of WestSummit Capital, who is one of the most active venture capitalists in the China-U.S. tech space. His portfolios include gaming platform Twitch Interactive Inc., which was bought by Amazon Inc.; chipmaker Movidius Ltd., which was acquired by Intel Corp.; and Chinese podcast platform Himalaya.
现实情况是，美国的低工资、低技能行业，如鞋、玩具和服装等，已经将工厂从中国转移到东南亚或南亚，因为中国的工资在过去15年中涨了8倍。所以，在这一点上与中国的脱钩可能并不太难。
The reality is that U.S. manufacturing in low-wage, low-skill industries, such as shoes, toys and apparel are already moving their factories out of China to Southeast Asia or South Asia, as wages in China have gone up about eight times over the past 15 years. In this regard, the decoupling has already begun.
但在技术领域，尤其是电子和智能制造业，中国的供应链优势很难取代。至少需要几年的时间才能找到数百万技术工人的替代品，广泛的工厂网络，提供有组织的装配线，高效的公路和港口以及其他可以将货物从工厂运往世界的运输工具。
But in the tech sectors, especially in electronics and smart manufacturing, China’s supply chain advantages are hard to replace. It will take years to find a replacement with millions of skilled workers, extensive networks of factories that supply essential components with organized assembly lines, efficient highways and ports and other forms of transportation that can move goods from the factory to the world.
如果真的发生这些领域的脱钩，对双方来说都是一个痛苦而漫长的旅程。因此，许多企业领导人和科技从业者在表达自己的担忧同时，开始为最坏的情况做好准备。
The decoupling in these sectors, if it really happens, will be a painful for both sides. That’s why many business leaders and tech players have begun to prepare themselves for the worst, while voicing their concerns.
最糟糕的场景与最佳场景
对中国而言，最坏的情况是，中美脱钩后，世界主要的国家都加入美国队的阵营，而中国与美国以及世界其他地区都完全脱钩。
In the worst scenario for China, it could be decoupled entirely from not only the U.S., but the rest of the world, as the major countries join Team USA.

但是发生这种情况的可能性很小。原因有很多，首先，中国的供应链优势以及巨大的市场很难在全球范围内被取代。此外，华盛顿“美国优先”原则为指导的激进政策并不利于在世界范围内“赢得朋友”。
But the possibility that this will happen is low for many reasons. First, China’s supply chain advantages and huge market opportunities are hard to replace worldwide; moreover, Washington’s aggressive policies guided by the “America First” principle are not exactly conducive for “winning friends.”
另一方面，中国的高层似乎正在达成共识，加快向世界其他地区开放市场，以抵消贸易战的负面影响。另外，尽管存在某些地区对地缘政治风险的担忧，中国的“一带一路”倡议在世界范围内取得重大的进展。
At the same time, Beijing is reaching a consensus to accelerate the opening up of its markets to the rest of the world in order to offset the negative impact of the trade war, according to the sources I’ve spoken to. China’s Belt and Road Initiative is also gaining traction worldwide despite some concerns about geopolitical risks in some regions.
如果中美两国真的不得不走上脱钩之路，很可能出现的情况是——中国将与欧洲、亚洲和其他地区的其他国家合作，继续开展业务拓展。
The likely scenario if the two countries really do decouple might be China continuing to do business with other countries in Europe, Asia and other regions.
而对于双方乃至世界而言，最好的情况是两国和解，因为中美之间的共同点和利害关系远超过华盛顿鹰派的想象。
The best-case scenario, for both sides, and probably the world, is reconciliation, as China and U.S. have a lot more in common and at stake than the hawks in Washington might think.
正如耶鲁历史学家Odd Arne Westad在“外交事务”杂志上所指出的那样，中美关系不纯粹是一场零和游戏，因为中国社会与美国社会更为相似，这是苏联时期社会关系不可比拟的，而中国人民也拥有与美国人民同样的希望与愿望。
Just as historian Odd Arne Westad of Yale pointed out in Foreign Affairs magazine, it is not purely a zero-sum game for China and U.S., as Chinese society has a lot more in common with American society than Soviet society ever did, and the Chinese have the same hopes and aspirations as Americans.
“你不能将美苏冷战思维应用于美中关系，因为这是完全不同的游戏，而且是不同的时代。”一位政治分析师告诉我，由于问题的敏感性，他要求匿名。
 “You can’t apply the U.S.-Soviet cold-war mindset to U.S.-China relations, because it is a completely different game and different times now,” said a political analyst who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue.
他进一步解释说，冷战期间，美国和苏联之间几乎没有相互依存关系，特别是在经济领域，而中国与美国正好相反，互相的依赖度很高。
The analyst explained that the U.S. and the Soviet Union had almost no interdependency, especially in the economic sphere, while the U.S. and China are exactly the opposite. 
他补充说：“与失败的苏联不同，中国通过和平发展不断进行自我改革，并且在过去的几十年中取得了极大的成功，这些都是被事实证明了的。”
“Unlike the Soviet Union that failed, China has constantly reformed itself with its peaceful development, and it has proven successful over the decades,” he told me.

危机中的“机”在哪里？
随着中美之间的分歧越来越大，危机似乎近在眼前，但是机遇也会涌现。
As the divergence between the U.S. and China widens, opportunities emerge from crisis.
投资人杨镭先生表示，由于中国和美国的大公司在贸易战中受到的冲击最大，因此可能会为初创公司和风险投资公司带来一线希望。杨先生在其投资生涯中经历过科技变革以及互联网泡沫，屡次以精准判断投资机会以及冷静和逆向思维而闻名。
As big companies from both China and the U.S. face greater fallout, there might be a silver lining for startups and venture capital firms, according to Yang, the venture capitalist, who is known for his contrarian views on investing.
“事实上，大型公司在这场地缘政治冲突中更容易受到影响，正如我们今天看到的那样。这种影响不会在短期内影响初创公司和VC”，杨先生向我解释说，“相反，它将使中国的许多创业公司受益，因为地缘政治局势提供了更多的机会，否则他们将无法获得这些机会，因为以前机会都流去了大型外国公司”。
“In fact large companies are more vulnerable in this geopolitical conflict as we have seen today for both sides. This impact would not affect startups and VCs in the short term. Instead it will benefit many startups in China since the geopolitical situation provides more opportunities (that) otherwise wouldn’t be available to them, which would (have gone) to large foreign companies,” Yang told to me.
“待到第二套科技系统成熟之日，创业公司自然会融入其中，”他补充道。
“Once the second system becomes mature or commercialized, the startups can jump on the wagon,” he added.
新兴的两套全球技术系统，也许会提供新的机会，但是也制造了混乱，尤其是那些希望在美国和中国开展业务的创业公司，特别是移动互联网领域的企业，因为他们也许不得不站队。
There might be hidden opportunities, but do prepare for the chaos as the emerging two global tech systems are also expected to create confusion for startups looking to do business in both the U.S. and China, especially in the mobile internet space, as they might have to pick sides.
“对于希望建立一个硅谷风格的创业公司的华裔美国人来说，他们感到焦虑 ——他们应该只关注美国而忘掉中国呢，还是跳开美国，直接去中国呢？”律师李先生观察到，自贸易战以来，中国对美国和世界其他国家的商业活动更加主动开放。
“There is anxiety for Chinese Americans looking to build a Silicon Valley-style startup — Do they focus only on the U.S. and skip China; or go directly to China and skip the U.S.? It’s a dilemma,” Lee observed, adding that China has been proactively more open to business from the U.S. and the rest of the world since the trade war began.
“中国加快了对外开放，特别是在银行和金融业……我预测中国的增长会放缓，但是可持续增长，”他推断。
“China has accelerated its opening-up, particularly in the banking and finance sector. I see slower GDP growth; however, very sustainable long term growth for China,” he said.
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